The US $ at Rs. 43.50 by March 2009, would you believe this to be possible?
One of the repercussions of the financial crisis in USA, was the outflow of billions of Dollars from India. Large scale selling by Institutions, FIIs and repatriations put tremendous pressure, as a result while the Dollar depreciated against most currencies in the world, the Rupee depreciated against the Dollar by nearly 10%, falling from Rs. 43/- to Rs. 47/-.
I believe the India Shining story is very much alive and while we cannot be isolated from global turmoil, corrective measures and the greed of Institutions worldwide to participate in the Indian growth story, will see inflows return slowly but steadily. Your views on above.
October 8th, 2008 at 9:41 am
MY VIEW IS USD AT RS 45 LEVELS
October 14th, 2008 at 2:04 pm
balance of trade and balance of payment are the major factors affecting the dolloar : Ruppee ratio……… Considering the global economic crunch, the Ex-Im transactions are also affected……..which shall inturn affect inflow of dollars in the country….. Bullion ( GOLD ) touching 14K itself makes us aware of the disturbance in Blance of payment with RBI n ECB……..as gold being the only exchangeable commodity against foreign payments…………..
considering the upcoming lok sabha elections in March, certaily there shall be improovement in the economy for the congress to get reeclected…….
Hence, I feel around March’09, dollar shall be anywhere around Rs.45 levels.
October 17th, 2008 at 11:38 am
No. I am not so optimistic. The financial meltdown is too severe. The INR can only appreciate when there is substantial dollar inflow through the FIIs. For this to happen, the world markets will have to get out of their own internal mess prior to investing in emerging economies.
We should not expect much upswing until March 2009. My guess is the INR will be between 46.50 - 47 during that period.