Dear Friends,

For long I was missing on my Blog but I am now back. We discuss everyones current favourite topic with which we had launched our Blog : “Flat Steel Prices”.

With H.R.Coils having shown tremendous resistance below USD 500 and even plate prices gradually strengthening to 550 levels from China and Ukraine, I do believe prices have bottomed out. Lack of buyers from the Middle East as well as from Europe and USA in lieu of holiday season may see some attractive spot opportunities in December, 2009 for buying. However, going ahead, I find it safe enough to buy at these levels.

Price level of 525 to 550 for H.R.Coils and Mild Steel Plates between January and March, 2010 seems to be realistic with a possibility of some spurt up to 570 also.

Domestic producers gave some reductions to safeguard against cheaper imports. However, with prices in China, Russia & Ukraine all remaining firm, I do not see any reason for them to continue in this direction.

Local demand has seen some lull in November but historically January to March Quarter has seen heavy action.

Though forecasts in steel have gone quite awry in the last year, I feel confident to predict that prices are headed upwards.

Your Comments.

Regards,
Sanjiv Mehta.

For commodity products such as H R Coils or billets or wire rods etc protection in some form would definitely be of help. If injury can be proven objectively, then there is justification immediately.

However across the board duties or levies or restrictions , such as the Nov 2008 circular restricting entire chapter 7208 are uncalled for. With appropriate alternatives , whether by quality or commercial , not being available such measures will be counter productive. In fact they would bring to a halt projects due to non availability , which will arise out of non viability.

Unfortunately while the government has initiated dumping action against a dozen countries , there is no opinion sought or representation made by fabricator associations/actual users or trade bodies. Strongest possibility that like earlier, across the board restrictions will be implemented and post such action we will see representations for reversal.

Even the restriction on import of Coils has been extended to plates but no actual user has reacted in writing to any govt body.

Users please ACT now not later.

Sanjiv Mehta

History showed a trend of terror attacks targetting public places and monuments at large. The resultant loss of human life of the common man was always the highest. The attacks on the Taj and Oberoi have changed everything. The focus was clearly high visibility individuals. This now leaves no one safe.

While the death toll and ruthlessness of the attackers has left me numb , the weaknesses in our intel, security forces and the behaviour of our politicians is what spells more trouble to come.

Though all of us are angry and want to retaliate or at least do something meaningful , there is very little we can do individually.  I intend interacting with groups who are coming together to pressurize for change and ensure visible safety measures being put in place.

Please do put in your suggestions, in terms of measures that we would want the government to implement. On my part I am going to put all efforts to ensure we are heard and eventually hope that life can become safer in India. 

I understand that all of us are cynical as to what we can acheive with letters and mails and the blog. However if we do not speak up nothing will ever happen.

My condolences to the families of all who have suffered in this dastardly act.

Sanjiv Mehta - Shah Brothers Ispat

One of the repercussions of the financial crisis in USA, was the outflow of billions of Dollars from India.  Large scale selling by Institutions, FIIs and repatriations put tremendous pressure, as a result while the Dollar depreciated against most currencies in the world,  the Rupee depreciated against the Dollar by nearly 10%, falling from Rs. 43/- to Rs. 47/-.

I believe the India Shining story is very much alive and while we cannot be isolated from global turmoil, corrective measures and the greed of Institutions worldwide to participate in the Indian growth story, will see inflows return slowly but steadily.  Your views on above.

With HR Coil prices touching 800 USD FOB and Plate prices softening to 1100 USD FOB have we reached the bottom of the slide ?

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